Cov yam ntxwv cuam tshuam rau yav tom ntej Trend ntawm Steel Nqe

1. Macroeconomic Backdrop
Kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam-tshwj xeeb hauv vaj tse, kev tsim vaj tsev, thiab kev tsim khoom-txhais cov kev xav tau steel. Kev txhawb nqa GDP (txhawb nqa los ntawm kev siv nyiaj txiag hauv vaj tse) txhawb nqa kev noj, thaum lub lag luam khoom lag luam poob qis lossis kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb tsis muaj zog rau tus nqi.
2. Supply-Demand Dynamics
Kev Siv Khoom: Kev ua haujlwm zeb (kev siv lub tshuab hluav taws xob / hluav taws xob siv hluav taws xob) thiab kev txiav ntau lawm (piv txwv li, crude steel curbs) cuam tshuam ncaj qha rau kev ua lag luam. Cov khoom lag luam qis (piv txwv li, 30-40% xyoo-rau-xyoo poob hauv cov khoom lag luam rebar) txhawb tus nqi hloov pauv.
Kev thov: Kev poob qis raws caij nyoog (kub cua sov, monsoons) cuam tshuam kev tsim kho, tab sis txoj cai stimulus (xws li, khoom easing) yuav ua rau lub sij hawm luv luv. Export zog (xws li, surging rebar exports nyob rau hauv H1 2025) offsets domestic oversupply tab sis ntsib kev lag luam kev sib txhuam.
3. Tus nqi Pass-through
Cov khoom siv raw (hlau ore, coking thee) dominate zeb nqi. Kev rov qab los ntawm coking thee (raws li kuv poob thiab kev nyab xeeb curbs) los yog hlau ore cov khoom lag luam-tsav rov qab txhawb nqa cov nqi hlau, thaum cov khoom siv poob qis (piv txwv li, 57% plunge hauv coking thee hauv H1 2025) ua rau qis qis.
4. Txoj cai cuam tshuam
Txoj cai tswj hwm cov khoom siv (xws li, kev tswj hwm emissions, txwv kev xa tawm) thiab kev thov (piv txwv li, kev sib cog lus hauv vaj tse, kev so vaj tse). Sudden txoj cai hloov-xws li kev txhawb siab lossis kev txwv-tsim kom tsis txhob hloov pauv.
5. Kev xav thoob ntiaj teb thiab kev lag luam
Kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb (piv txwv li, kev pheej hmoo los tiv thaiv kev lag luam) thiab cov khoom lag luam (duas-lub npe hlau ore) txuas cov nqi hauv tsev rau kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb. Kev ua lag luam yav tom ntej thiab "kev cia siab qhov tsis sib xws" (txoj cai vs. kev muaj tiag) ua kom cov nqi hloov pauv.
6. Kev pheej hmoo raws caij nyoog thiab ntuj tsim
Huab cua huab cua (kub kub, typhoons) cuam tshuam kev tsim kho, thaum logistical bottlenecks ua rau lub regional mov-xav tsis sib haum, exacerbating luv luv nqi volatility.